Monsoons Are Coming—Where Will the Water Go?

Ponds on SaddleBrooke golf courses help retain runoff from monsoon rains. (Photo by Connie Kotke

Connie Kotke

Across Arizona

According to the Arizona Department of Water Resources (AZDWR), the past year (April 2024 to March 2025) ranked as the “3rd hottest and 4th driest on record, expanding long-term drought conditions. The weak La Niña phase has ended with neutral conditions persisting through at least the summer. While odds are tilted towards dry conditions the next three months, there is a slight chance that monsoon rainfall will be greater than average over much of the state.”

Monsoon rains typically occur between June 15 and Sept. 30. The heavy downpours run off into washes, streams, and creeks. Only a small portion infiltrates the ground. Hydrologists believe it takes five inches of rain before we start to see some recharge in the aquifer. AZDWR states that “rainfall in an arid place is almost always a welcome event. But truth be told, summer storms just aren’t drought-killers. Fending off drought—especially the kind of long-running drought the Southwest has experienced—takes deep winter snowpack in the region’s mountainous watersheds. After more than two decades of dry conditions, it would take several consecutive years of deep snowpack to release from drought’s grip.”

Beneath SaddleBrooke

During the March presentation called “In the Know on H2O,” sponsored by the SaddleBrooke Public Affairs Commission, we learned that our underground aquifer is part of a large watershed and storage system called Tucson Active Management Area (TAMA). Groundwater levels within TAMA declined sharply from 1940 until the early 2000s when the Tucson metro area started importing Colorado River water. Depending on the severity of climate change and growing demand, water levels will recover somewhat but will remain below those recorded in 1940. The study found that our aquifer serving the SaddleBrooke community is one of four areas of concern where groundwater is expected to decline without mitigation efforts.

During monsoon season, some of the runoff traveling through washes and rivers seeps into the ground and eventually reaches the water table in the aquifer. Duration of the rainfall and the amount of flow are key factors in how much, as are stormwater retention systems that Robson may have used in developing the community. It is possible that a high percentage of runoff is retained within SaddleBrooke, but even the most casual observer knows that a lot of runoff (coming from impervious surfaces inside or outside of SaddleBrooke boundaries) flows through and out of the community.